With less than two months until the Copa América kicks off in Chile and only one friendly against Bolivia before that, Gerardo Martino has no doubt already got his squad in mind. Those hopeful of seeing a much-changed Argentina squad will almost certainly be left disappointed but Martino’s perceived conservatism is driven by the fact that he seeks to end La Albiceleste’s 22-year trophy drought and has had little time to tinker or introduce young players since inheriting the World Cup runners-up. With that in mind, Golazo predicts how Argentina will line-up come June 13th when they start against Paraguay.

It is a safe assumption that Argentina will retain the familiar looking 4-3-3, albeit a little tweaked from the version that Alejandro Sabella enjoyed success with, or a 4-2-3-1 that Martino has tested in the friendlies since October 2014. Not only does playing this formation, with what is similar personnel, mean that there is not a great deal to drill into the players it is also a formation that Martino has used regularly during his management career with Newell’s and Barcelona.

While Sabella’s influence on the side is still keenly felt it is not just in his squad selection that Martino could be accused of being conservative. The slight changes to the 4-3-3 are also to err on the side of caution and create a far more stable defensive shape then the somewhat gung-ho approach that Sabella adopted. Pro-Martino supporters will say that creating a side that can defend without needing to close your eyes and hope for the best, as Sabella said he sometimes did, is a positive step, while his detractors will claim that the attack is stifled and too much pressure is placed on Messi and the rotating cast of world-class attackers who could line-up alongside the captain to go and win matches.

So, in what is perhaps the preferred 4-3-3, the Argentina line-up would contain only one player who was not a key figure from the squad in Brazil. Martín Demichelis came into Sabella’s defence after the dreadful start to the tournament by Federico Fernández and although he performed admirably his position in the 2015 defence is most under threat. At 34, Demichelis is not the quickest of defenders and is a little error-prone and the indication from Martino’s selection in the recent Ecuador friendly is that Nicolás Otamendi will be the preferred partner for Ezequiel Garay. Pablo Zabaleta has not enjoyed the best season with Manchester City by his high standards but has never failed Argentina and would still be expected to continue as first-choice right back in Chile.

The midfield three under Martino operates differently: Under Sabella, Ángel Di María’s often super-human lung capacity was utilised as one of the three, meaning that Argentina played at a much greater pace and looked to break at speed but Martino does not appear to share this vision. His Argentina still have the pace to spring attacks from defence but Di María is not part of the midfield and there is a greater onus on possession and triangular passing. In this instance, a far more compact and solid looking three of Javier Mascherano, Lucas Biglia and Enzo Pérez would be preferred. As it happened, the injury to Di María at the World Cup led to Pérez’s inclusion in Sabella’s side although the shape of the side differed slightly when his happened. Martino’s three would provide ample cover for the defence and although Biglia and Pérez would have license to get forward and certainly have the ability to pick passes they do not possess the pace and forward thinking to run beyond the strikers as Di María did.

So pushing Di María forward, Martino has a natural left-sided attacker to one side of his three-pronged attack. A player with the ability to beat the full-back, cut inside to pose a goal threat but have the energy to track back and help Manchester United teammate Marcos Rojo. On the alternative flank is captain, Lionel Messi who would take a similar position to the one he plays for Barcelona. Primarily coming off the right-hand side but with the freedom that is awarded to the world’s best footballer to drop deeper or drift centrally to pick the ball up to his feet from the midfield.

This leaves the hugely competitive ‘number nine’ position that Martino has already said is between Gonzalo Higuaín, Sergio Agüero and Carlos Tevez. Martino views them all as centre forwards and as such they are in direct competition for one spot despite their varying talents. Tevez is the most prolific at club level this season but has never reproduced this form at international level and if the recent friendlies are any indication then it appears Manchester City’s Agüero will get the nod. Agüero has remained close friends with Messi since they lifted the under-20 World Cup in 2005 and their excellent relationship on the pitch has continued through to their national team careers. In any matches during the Copa América where Argentina’s attack is failing expect here to be one of Martino’s first changes.

The critics of Martino’s 4-3-3, as I already said, would suggest that the midfield is not dynamic enough but as has already been demonstrated during Martino’s friendlies as recently as last month but also in the defeat to Portugal in November 2014 the coach is open to a using a 4-2-3-1. This formation would perhaps increase the level creativity from midfield and give the possession a more progressive direction. The personnel remains similar but with Javier Pastore introduced in the middle of the three. The 25-year-old enganche gave a glimpse of his potential against Ecuador but in this instance Messi was messing. A formation with the two would have a great deal of potential and would excite a lot of supporters. Mascherano and Biglia would still provide protection but Pastore would have that freedom to play behind the lone striker and seek the runs of Messi and Di María in behind.

Unless there are injuries between now and the Copa América all of the players mentioned here are certain to be in Martino’s 23-man squad so that will provide no further clues. Even when they meet Bolivia in San Juan on June 6th just one week before the first match with Paraguay it may not be clear given that the Champions League Final could delay the arrival of several members. Whatever Martino decides on, failure is not really an option. The wait has gone on long enough and the expectation is now sky high once more.