Almost six years ago, TyC Sports in Argentina released a commercial about what it’s like to be a fan of a team that is battling against relegation. To sum it up, it’s hell. For die hard football fans, and let’s be honest, that is most people in Argentina, if your team is fighting to stay up in their league, that feeling and thought is not something that can only be constrained to match day. It is an aching that lives with you 24/7.

Not only has your entire life become a black hole of pain and sorrow, there is literally nothing you can do about it. Even if you attend the matches and cheer on your club, you cannot kick the ball into the net. And even worse, you cannot control the outcome of the other matches being played by the other clubs also fighting for survival.

You are stuck outside in the rain with no umbrella and no where to go to find cover. You’re thrown into a body of water with a weight tied to your ankle. You’re falling from the sky and your parachute won’t open. You’re inside a burning house and the walls are crumbling around you.

Do you get the picture? It isn’t a fun experience to be completely hopeless and not be able to do anything about it.

This season, seven teams are fighting to stay alive for another year but only four of those teams will be demoted to the B Nacional. With only six matches left, there is still a lot to be decided. I only feel certain about one of the teams, Tigre. While they may be the best of the relegation candidates, they have the highest mountain to climb, and time may be running out too soon.

If Tigre is the only certainty, that gives three additional spots to six teams. To figure this out, I took a look at each of the clubs and their remaining matches. I attempted to take into consideration current form of both the club and their opponents, as well as home / away of each match to determine how many points each team may end up with this season.

It should go without being said, but Argentine football is completely unpredictable and any match could go in any number of directions. Case and point, San Martin (T) has three victories all season, two of which came against Racing (current tied for 1st in the league) and Atlético Tucumán (currently in fourth). They also took a lead against Defensa y Justicia (also tied for the league lead) into the 82nd minute before conceding two goals in the final 10 minutes.

With that caveat in place, here is my best attempt to predict which teams will be relegated and which teams will claw their way to survival.

Argentinos Juniors: 55 points / 46 matches / 1.195

Remaining matches:

at Atlético Tucumán – Defeat

at San Lorenzo – Defeat

Velez – Draw

at San Martin (SJ) – Defeat

Rosario Central – Draw

at Patronato – Defeat

Final Point total: 57 points / 52 matches / 1.096

Gimnasia: 88 points / 76 matches / 1.157

Remaining matches:

at Aldosivi – Defeat

Independiente – Defeat

at Estudiantes – Draw

Newells – Draw

at San Lorenzo – Defeat

Colón – Draw

Final Point total: 91 points / 82 matches / 1.109

San Martín (SJ): 85 points / 76 matches / 1.118

Remaining matches:

at Newells – Defeat

Godoy Cruz – Draw

at Lanus – Defeat

Argentinos Juniors – Victory

at Colón – Draw

Talleres – Draw

Final Point Total: 91 points / 82 matches / 1.109

Patronato: 84 points / 76 matches / 1.105

Remaining Matches:

at Tigre – Defeat

Huracán – Defeat

at Belgrano – Defeat

Defensa y Justicia – Defeat

at Godoy Cruz – Defeat

Argentinos Juniors – Victory

Final Point Total: 87 points / 82 matches / 1.061

Belgrano: 82 points / 76 matches / 1.078

Remaining matches:

San Lorenzo – Draw

at Rosario Central – Draw

Patronato – Victory

at Racing – Defeat

at Lanus – Defeat

Godoy Cruz – Draw

Final Point Total: 88 points / 82 matches / 1.073

Tigre: 77 points / 76 matches / 1.013

Remaining matches:

Patronato – Victory

at Velez – Defeat

Union – Draw

at Talleres – Defeat

Racing – Defeat

at River Plate – Defeat

Final Point Total: 81 points / 82 matches / 0.988

San Martin (T): 18 points / 19 matches / 0.947

Remaining Matches:

at River Plate – Defeat

Lanus – Draw

at Huracán – Defeat

Boca Juniors – Defeat

at Estudiantes – Draw

San Lorenzo – Draw

Final Point Total: 21 points / 25 matches / 0.840

Final Promedios Standings

Gimnasia – 1.109

San Martin (SJ) – 1.109

Argentinos – 1.096

———–

Belgrano – 1.073

Patronato – 1.061

Tigre – 0.988

San Martin (T) – 0.840

Jimmy lived in Córdoba, Argentina as a teenager and is still an active Socio for his beloved club, Belgrano. He currently lives in Seattle, WA and runs the Belgrano – English twitter account. Check out his weekly videos produced by Fanatiz about Belgrano and their relegation battle.